Forward and Spot Rates
Spot rate means the rate at this moment. It
can be the rate for 90 days, for half years or for 10 years. Forward rate means the expected rate at a
particular time in the future. Similarly, it can have rate for 90 days, for
half years or for 10 years. As the forward rate is the expected rate in the
future, the forward rate will become spot rate at that moment if the expectation
is correct. For example, on Jan 1, 2007, the 90-day forward rate for Jan 1,
2008 may be 5% (annualized). If the expectation is correct, the 90-day spot
rate on Jan 1, 2008 will still be 5%.
Spot rate and forward rate can be both
represented as nfm where n is
the period from this moment and m is the period of investment/contract.
Moreover, n, m are usually represented in multiples of
30 days. For example, 0f1 means the spot rate (0 days
from this moment) for 30-day contract. 4f1 also means a
30-day contract but 360 days from now.
Traps and Tips:
You will be asked to find the
forward rate of a particular n, m pair in the CFA exam. The concept they are
testing you is whether you understand how a investor will be indifferent
of 2 investment schemes or
how arbitrage can be prevented. The point is 2 consecutive investments should
have the same yield as 1 investment with the same total period. Otherwise,
there is arbitrage opportunity. (Remember, in finance, there is an equation of
balance, i.e. arbitrage-free. This is the fundamental force in finance).
Several points have to be bore in
mind:
- n, m are multiples of 90 days.
- Remember the meaning of nfm
- Understand whether the given rate is
annualized!
E.g. There
is a bond with 5 periods left. And 0f5 = 5.6%. Another bond has 3 periods left
with 0f3 = 5.3%. What should be the rate the 2nd bond has to be
re-invested with so that the investor will be indifferent?
The rate being asked is the 2-period
forward rate 3 periods from now (3f2). We have to equate:
0f5 ^ 5 = 0f3 ^ 3 x 3f2 ^ 2
(1.056)^5 = (1.053)^3
x 3f2 ^2
Therefore, the forward rate should
be 6.052%. (Note, here it didn’t mention days/years. So we just have to
treat the given rate as the rate of a period.)